It’s almost that sad time of the year, where we say goodbye to premier league football for all of two or three months. Unfortunately it’s a pretty dull run-in, in terms of competition for the title, and relegation, but there are still some crucial places to play for.
Teams positioned 8th-15th aren’t playing for anything themselves, but could play spoiler to some other team’s aspirations.
What is certain: Chelsea are champions
Automatic qualifiers to the Champions League group stage: Chelsea, Manchester City
The other Champions League teams: Arsenal, Manchester United
Europa League: Liverpool, Spurs, Southampton
Relegated: QPR, Burnley and either Hull, Newcastle, Sunderland.
So which games should you really not care about…
Aston Villa v Burnley: Villa are safe, Burnley are relegated.
Swansea v Crystal Palace: Swansea’s hopes for Europa League football went with their loss at City, Palace could compete for a top 10 finish, but what does that matter, eh?
Leicester v QPR: Other than trying to put an exclamation mark on the incredible finish to Leicester’s season, or stamp QPR’s place at the bottom of the table, nothing to see here.
Which games matter…
Arsenal v West Brom: Probably the least likely to matter as Arsenal need a draw vs Sunderland (tonight) to seal 3rd place and Champions League group stage action. It’s possible that Sunderland holds them to a draw, but West Brom is unlikely to manage the same.
Newcastle v West Ham: Newcastle have the worst goal difference of the three remaining relegation candidates (-25), but still, they play West Ham who have been in the worst form after some excitement earlier in the season. A draw won’t be enough if Hull win against United, a win sees them saved.
Stoke v Liverpool and Tottenham v Everton: 9th hosts 5th, and 6th hosts 10th, the closest matched of the remaining games, at least among the top sides. Tottenham have to win and hope Liverpool are held at Stoke, to qualify for the Europa League group stage. They could also draw with a Liverpool loss…by five goals.
A Liverpool win seals it for them, and a draw is enough if Spurs don’t win.
Manchester City v Southampton: Southampton’s goal difference is an incredible +23. Only two less than 4th place United, 14 and 19 better than Liverpool and Spurs, respectively.
This matters because if Liverpool draw, Spurs draw or lose, and Southampton win, they’ll jump into the Europa League group stage. A draw combined with a Spurs loss also sees them get into the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League.
At the very worst, if they lose to City, they’ll get a 1st round qualifying match for the Europa League, but that of course means a long qualifying campaign.
Chelsea v Sunderland: Sunderland only need a point to stay a-Premier League-float. They have two games to get it in. Seems simple, right? Except that these games are against Arsenal and Chelsea.
However, check this form: Drew at Stoke, beat Southampton, beat Everton away, drew with hot hot hot Leicester. 8 points in 4 matches isn’t bad at all, unfortunately one mroe point may be too much for them.
Hull v Manchester United: The one to watch, even if United are already stuck with 4th place by the final weekend. The onus is on Hull to win, no other result will do.
Hull have won as many home matches (five) as United have lost, away, and while it probably isn’t likely, at least you can be sure they will be going all out for a win. And if United somehow have something to play for on the final day, it gets all the more interesting.