It’s been a bleak season for me watching Champions League matches. The time it’s aired in Sri Lanka (curse you, Daylight Savings Time!) is more suited to the life of a college student. You know the type, the ones that sleep when the sun rises, until they’re woken for lunch.
Excuse me while I reminisce and pour some liquor…
And I’m back!
Fortunately for me, progressing to the 2nd round of the Champions League is all about the numbers, and I love figuring out the permutations, so let’s get cracking, shall we?
THE DULL ONES…
Group H
Porto 13 points
Shaktar 8
Bilbao 4
BATE 3
What is certain: Boring. Porto top the group, Shaktar finish 2nd.
What remains to be seen: I mean no offense, fans of Bilbao and BATE Borisov. You either, Europa League fans. There is some interest in that Bilbao host BATE in a knockout match. The winners will take the Europa League spot, the loser leaves with nothing. A draw is also good enough for the Spaniards. BATE have conceded 11 goals in their 2 away matches (a horrifying 11 in 3 home matches, too), so Bilbao should back themselves…although they are yet to win at home.
My prediction: Porto finish first, Shaktar 2nd…I’m off to a good start!
Group D
Dortmund 12 points
Arsenal 10
Anderlecht 5
Galatasaray 1
What’s certain: The top two are confirmed, Anderlecht are in the Europa League, Galatasaray are out.
What remains to be seen: Which of Arsenal or Dortmund get that top spot. Arsenal travel to Turkey for arguably the easier of the two matches, but having said that Dortmund have won both their home matches and even a draw will see them top the group. Arsenal can only hope for Anderlecht to spring a surprise win, and to win away at Galatasaray.
My prediction: Dortmund top the group (although aren’t they in some horror domestic form?), Arsenal 2nd. Again, I think I’m 100% at this point.
Group F
PSG 13 points
Barca 12
Ajax 2
APOEL 1
What is certain: As expected, PSG and Barca are through.
What remains to be seen: PSG travel to the Nou Camp with a draw seeing them top the group, while a Barca win propels them above. Ajax are a point ahead of APOEL, and playing at home would probably back themselves against a side that have scored 1 goal in 4 matches. That was, however, in a 1-1 draw with Ajax. The plot thickens!
Prediction: Barca win at PSG, probably with some combination of Messi and Neymar goals (I’m increasing the degree of difficulty here), and PSG qualify as runners up.
THE ONES TO WATCH…
Group C
Leverkusen 9 points
Monaco 8
Zenit 7
Benfica 4
What is certain: Benfica finish 4th. Leverkusen are through to the next round.
What remains to be seen: Leverkusen can clinch 1st place with a win, or a draw coupled with Zenit beating Monaco. The Russians are playing at Monaco on the final day, and know they have to win to qualify.
My prediction: Tough one to call, but Leverkusen qualify first, Monaco does enough to hold Zenit off.
Group B
Real 15 points
Basel 6
Liverpool 4
Ludogrets 4
What is certain: The only team with 5 wins out of 5, Real top the group.
What remains to be seen: Any of the other three teams could qualify, although poor Ludogrets have to win in Madrid to do so. Basel play Liverpool to decide the runners-up spot, and Liverpool have to win their home match to progress. A loss to Basel and a Ludogrets draw (laughs), sees the reds knocked out of Europe entirely.
My prediction: Liverpool’s woeful form is not enough to beat Basel, the Swiss finish a distance second to 18-point Real.
Group E
Bayern 12 points
Roma 5
Cska 5
City 5
What is certain: As expected, Bayern top the group.
What remains to be seen: It was clear that Bayern would win the group. What wasn’t so clear was Aguero, Aguero, Aguero this past week. 3-2, a shocking victory and now a very interesting race for 2nd. All 3 teams could finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th. Roma host City while CSKA have the unenviable task of traveling to Munich. With that match likely being a Bayern win, CSKA can really only hope for City v Roma to not end in a draw which would drop them to 4th. A win for Roma or City pushes them into 2nd place, however the intrigue lies in the potential for a draw. A goalless draw means Roma qualify, but if City score at all, look for Roma to go piling forward, as a scoring draw knocks them out.
My prediction: Bayern win, CSKA get knocked out, and City beat Roma for 2nd place and finally, some Champions League success.
Group A
Atleti 12 points
Juve 9
Olympiacos 6
Malmo 3
What is certain: Atleti are through.
What remains to be seen: Juve could top the group, and could also be demoted to the Europa League spot. Malmo can still get Europa League.
Juve hosts Atleti in a battle of the group leaders. Anything but a Juventus win leaves the Spanish side topping the group. However if Olympiacos win, and Juventus lose, both of which are very possible, the Greeks advance by virtue of scoring twice in the 3-2 loss in Turin, whereas Juve couldn’t score in the return fixture.
My prediction: Juve don’t lose to Atleti and scrape in. This will be a really interesting group to watch though.
Group G
Chelsea 11 points
Sporting 7
Schalke 5
Maribor 3
What is certain: Chelsea top the group.
What remains to be seen: The highest scoring group could provide further entertainment. Sporting have managed 4 goals in their away games (only 1 point), and a draw is enough to see them safely through, although it is at Stamford Bridge, so good luck with that. However if they lose, a Schalke win will see the Germans jump into 2nd. Maribor haven’t been beaten yet at home, drawing 1-1 with both Chelsea and Sporting. This will be fun!
My prediction: Chelsea top the group, Maribor frustrate Schalke and Sporting qualify despite losing.
With that, I shut off my crystal ball. As ever, there is plenty of potential for some fun 2nd round ties. Just a shame that United aren’t in it.
I’m off to go and cry now.
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